The word “recession” has been in the news a lot over the last couple years, ever since home prices started normalizing from their record highs. This may make you worry that we’re headed toward a housing market crash like we saw in 2008. Luckily, experts predict this is not the case! Let’s take a look at what they have to say.
Economists’ Recession Predictions
Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, says that the economy is doing just fine: “At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”
A recent Wall Street Journal economic survey shows that 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. Just one year ago, 61% were projecting a recession (see graph below):
We didn’t have a recession in the last year, and it’s looking even less likely we’ll have one now! To understand why, let’s look at unemployment.
Current Unemployment Statistics
Typically, we see unemployment spike at the start of a recession.
The chart below shows current unemployment rates compared with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Trading Economics.
The red bar shows the unemployment rate after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed. The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate for the last 75 years of data. The blue bar shows our current unemployment rate as of January 2024. As you can see, our current unemployment rate is below the 75-year average, and much lower than the rate at the time of the 2008 financial crisis.
Economists’ Unemployment Predictions
Next, let’s look at the graph below, which uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show unemployment predictions.
As you can see, economists are projecting low unemployment rates over the next three years. They don’t expect unemployment rates to even hit the 75-year average, much less the 8.3% we saw in 2008.
Unfortunately, some people will still lose their jobs in the next year even if the unemployment rate stays low. This is a very difficult situation for anyone to face, though luckily there are options to avoid foreclosure.
When we look at the big picture, though, we can feel assured that there won’t be a large flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market.
Bottom Line
Most experts do not expect a recession in the next year, or a spike in unemployment. This means you don’t have to fear a housing market crash. If you’re planning to make a move, 2024 is a good year to do it!
If you find your dream home and need to sell your current home quickly, MarketPro Homebuyers is here as a resource. We can help you unlock your home equity and get into your dream home. If your home is distressed, don’t worry! We buy houses in any condition.
You may ask:
Can I sell my house fast if it needs a new roof?
Can I sell my house fast if it has plumbing problems?
Can I sell my house fast if it needs electrical work?
The answer is yes! We take on any repairs, big or small.
Work With MarketPro
We’ll give you a fast cash offer for your current home just as it is now; no repairs, no upgrades, no inspection, no commissions or fees. You can even choose your exact closing date. Our team will walk you through your quote, including a review of what your home would likely bring on the open market.
If you’re in Washington, D.C., Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida or Georgia, we’d love to show you how easy and stress-free the sales process can be. Contact us today for a same-day, no-pressure quote.
